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Why Your Team Isn’t Resisting. They’re Predicting

  • Writer: Geigsen
    Geigsen
  • Aug 1
  • 2 min read

Updated: Aug 7

You said it clearly. You repeated it. You backed it with data. And still... the behavior didn't change.


Most leaders interpret this as resistance. In reality, it’s something much deeper and more invisible: prediction. Your team isn’t pushing back because they don’t agree. They’re pushing back because their brains can’t fit the new input into their existing internal models.

Let’s break it down.


The Brain Predicts Before It Perceives

Every human brain is a prediction engine. It doesn’t wait to see the world and then react. It forecasts what’s about to happen and fills in meaning based on prior experiences.

That means every person on your team is working from a different internal model of reality that is built from past outcomes, relational dynamics, unspoken expectations and personal interpretation.


When a new strategy, idea, or initiative doesn’t match that internal model, the brain throws a flag. This is called a prediction error and it is energetically expensive to resolve.


Learning and creating real change is the act of resolving prediction errors in real time. It takes mental agility to notice prediction errors and it takes energy to reconcile them.

Misunderstanding Isn’t Lack of Intelligence. It’s Neural Friction.

A CEO once shared: "I felt like I was walking my exec team through the clearest strategy we’ve ever had. The words were right. But the room felt flat."

What he missed was that while the language of the strategy was sound, the mental models in the room weren’t aligned. Some heard threat. Others heard workload. A few heard the same story they’d heard five times before.

Without shared meaning, understanding is shallow. Execution becomes scattered.


What Leaders Get Wrong About Resistance

When teams stall, leaders often:

  • Repeat the message louder

  • Question loyalty or capability

  • Push harder on performance metrics


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A Better Mental Model for You, the Leader

If you start from the assumption that your team is predicting, not resisting, your approach changes.


You ask different questions:

  • What are they expecting this change will mean?

  • What does this trigger from their past experiences?

  • How might their prediction model be out of sync with mine?

Asking these questions create an important shift. They move you from being a commander to being a translator... from delivering answers to enabling understanding.
CEO's Notepad Reminders: Prediction Error
CEO's Notepad Reminders: Prediction Error

Final Thought

You don’t change behavior by demanding agreement. You change behavior by changing the model the behavior lives inside.

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